Vietnam and China have fought since the 1970s over the three island groups, and last month, Vietnam passed a law that claimed sovereignty over the Paracels and Spratly Islands. In response, China said the islands were the “indisputable” territory of China.What are the different ways that the PRC and Vietnam might resolve this issue? What role could non-state actors play? Should this be something the US concerns itself with and, if so, why?
It seems like China has already taken a huge step to seeing that the islands fall under their control. By deploying troops to the Paracels and Spratley Islands and setting up a government, they have already, practically, taken over the island. Even if external forces claim the islands, they are already de facto territories of China. Any intervention by Vietnam or the Philippines would mean an act of war in the eyes of the Chinese, which would not be good for either state. Even if the UN, ASEAN or other IGOs and NGOs were to support Vietnam or the Philippines, China would be forced to defend their "indisputable" territory through war.
ReplyDeleteThe US should be concerned, because it is one of the main trade routes between Southeast Asia and the Western Hemisphere. Many goods are shipped through the South China Sea, and Chinese control over the sea (as well as any conflict that may arise) would drive prices up across the Pacific. However, if it were to intervene, the US would have to settle the issue quickly to ensure that there is no damage to the economy in both regions. However, it is unwise that they commit to any actions unless there are clear signs of violence breaking out - Chinese control of the regional trade is preferable to conflict.
To be clear, "China" or "Chinese" refers to the People's Republic of China.
DeletePRC and Vietnam could try to solve it diplomatically at the UN however both countries have already taken drastic steps to claim the territory such as China sending people there and Vietnam passing a law that it is their's, so they made not want to negotiate. As I said the UN could be a venue for them to talk, but another non-state actor that could help would be ASEAN because if they banded together and supported Vietnam it would be more formidable to China than just Vietnam alone. I agree with Vishal that the US shouldn't get involved unless violence erupts, but also if the PRC starts to hinder trade in that region.
ReplyDelete-Feddi
The PRC and Vietnam could try to solve it diplomatically, but chances are that will only work if each side gets something out of it. So, China could get the Paracels and Vietnam could get the Spratly Islands based on distance to each respective country. Realists would argue though, that each country would want all of the islands, so even though I don't hunk it will, some political scientists may see it escalating to war, but I think China would win relatively easily.Non-state actrs may be able to play the role of the mediator so that talks are smoother or they could monitor the area. The US should not concern itself with this because the Us has nothing to gain and there is no humanitarian help required right now, so it would be against their own interest. - Jeremy McMillan
ReplyDeleteIt would be in both the PRC and Vietnam's interest to solve this dispute diplomatically through the United Nations. Yet, it is possible for these to countries to go to war over these islands. This puts the United States in a difficult situation because the US has bases in Vietnam. Yet, the United States has a very important alliance with the People's Republic of China. The United Staes should not get involved at first. Yet, if these two countries can not settle their differences diplomatically, and decide to settle them with violence, it could spell trouble for the United States. Therefore, causing possible US involvement.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't go as far as to say we have an important alliance with them, since that implies a military pact. We do have an important relationship with them, both in terms of trade and in terms of regional security.
DeleteIt is certainly true that violence would not be good for the US, since that could make trouble for US naval dominance and access to trade with states in that region.
I strongly believe that if there are no forms of diplomacy for the next days, a war will start, and it will obviously not be convenient for any state (China would definitely have more probabilities on winning the territory). I agree with Ashlyn with the fact that if a conflict arises the United States will face a major problem. Still, I believe that for this situation diplomacy can still be used in order to come up with an agreement. After all, we have seen events where successful diplomacy appears even when times are hard (such as the Cuban Missile Crisis at the end).-Ces Escobedo
ReplyDeleteSometimes it's important to know when to give up. I think that Vietnam should just relinquish their hold on the islands, and allow China to take them as a form of appeasement. Although appeasement failed with Germany, China really only seems to want to increase it's economic influence, rather than attempting to military conquer the rest of eastern Asia. Unlike the people above me, I think that diplomacy will fail. If both sides care about the islands as much as they do, a compromise seems unlikely. Regardless of the US interests in the region, there is no peaceful way for the Vietnamese or US to take the islands back. It would be smarter to just give them up, and accept that the US's influence in the region is diminishing. In fact, they might even want to consider a withdrawal from the area, rather than anger a growing Chinese power.
ReplyDelete- Simon Zhu