A playground for proxies: Iran and Israel may become more involved in the Sudanese imbroglio
Since an Islamist-backed military coup brought Sudan’s president, Omar
al-Bashir, to power in 1989, Shia-run Iran has seen Sunni-dominated
Sudan as a useful ally in north-east Africa... Israeli ties to the southerners go back to the 1960s, when they first
received arms and training. More recently Israeli security experts have
reportedly been working with South Sudan’s revamped military.
Jake sent in this story about international involvement in the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. What are the implications of this involvement for the region and for international security?
Everything today is interconnected in the sense that things that happen on the state level automatically affect the international system, simply because of the technology and ties present in the world today. Whatever happens in Sudan will affect everyone indirectly. The difference the involvement of Iran and Israel would make is the direct involvement of certain states, which could lead to new conflicts (because even more varying interests will be introduced with the additional players). As a general rule, I think involvement of other countries into the Sudanese imbroglio will result in more intensified issues and risks (with regards to negotiations and safety).
ReplyDeleteAs Emily, I do believe that everything today, even the most minimum things are interconnected. I do differ with the fact that if other states get involved, it will only make more problems. Why would there be more problems? I would see their involvement as a new source of hope in order to end this conflict. Again, anything that happens in this conflict will affect our security one way or another. There might be a strong interdependence between those states and other states, and with this conflict, other problems might arise. Let's hope things get better...-Ces Escobedo
ReplyDeleteThis could end up being a proxy war between Israel and Iran in Sudan and South Sudan like Vietnam and Korea during the Cold War. If this does occur, this is no longer a civil war, but an international conflict. Eventually, other states could also get drawn in. The United States has always supported Israel. Does that mean we support South Sudan and its interests?. The United States appears to not want get involved, but may end up just picking a side like at the beginning of WWII when they sent the Allies weapons. In the end, if more countries get involved, more lives will be lost. - Jeremy McMillan
ReplyDeleteSeeing that Israel and Arab states like Iran are already on bad terms, their proxy conflict in Sudan and South Sudan could escalate quikely and be a good excuse for a full out war. I agree with Jeremy in that since the US supports Israel we may also be drawn into the conflict. In the article it talks about the UN putting sactions and using economic statecraft on both Sudans trying to get peace, however it seems to be only turning Sudan towards Iran becuase now they have something in common, UN sanctions. However if the UN used the carrot instead of the stick, and rewarded/bribed Sudan out of war it might work better.
ReplyDelete-Feddi Roth
If this war goes too sour, we could be facing another state that is vehemently against our ally, Israel, but also the Unites States. Like Jeremy said, this could drag all of us in for a proxy war. This is also a testament to the flaws in interconnectedness, if one of us is affected, we ALL try to resolve the issue. Iran and Israel are most likely going to be directly involved, further intensifying the tension between those two states. This could be the spark to the dynamite.
ReplyDelete-Sasha Galbreath
If Iran and Israel get involved in Sudan, it is a definite possibility that this could lead to a proxy war. This is also a very crucial issue for the United States. Since the United States is a huge aid supporter in Israel, the United States could use Israel as a puppet in the conflict in Sudan. Yet, the United States strongly advises Israel to go to war with Iran, even though Israel wants to. Yet, the United States wants to stop Iran from obtaining any nuclear weapons. If Israel and Iran go to war it could lead into a proxy war, the United States would be in a very difficult position, and the worse possibility is another World War. I believe the best thing is for Israel and Iran to not go into Sudan directly. Yet indirectly help the Sudanese through the United Nations and other International Corporations.
ReplyDeleteA proxy war could definitely be started: the conflict hasn't ended yet, and Israel-Iran relations are in terrible shape. The problem with proxy wars is that it's impossible to guarantee safety. An example is the Angola Civil War, through which the Soviet Union fought the US and France. This had an unbelievable death toll (about a million) and compromised the safety of the entire region. States may be less cautious using nuclear weapons in places that they do not control, meaning that Israel and Iran may have a chance to have a major conflict outside of their homelands. The US would probably not be dragged into the conflict, unless Iran were to make a direct attack in Israel. This would, as Ashlyn commented, probably lead to a world war.
ReplyDelete